>> Hello, good afternoon
everybody.

I'm Susan Collins, the Joan
and Sanford Weill Dean here

at the Gerald R. Ford School of
Public Policy and I am delighted

to welcome all of you
here this afternoon,

on behalf of the Ford
School Community.

We're very honored today to
be joined by a man who for

so many people became the single
essential source of information

over the past months

as the dramatic transformational
world changing events happened

in the Arab Spring.

We-- in a few moments, I will be
introducing our speaker Sheikh

Sultan Al Qassemi, but before
I do that I would like tell

to you a little bit about the
origins of this lecture series

which is something that
the school has been very,

very proud to host.

This is as you know is the
Josh Rosenthal lecture.

Josh Rosenthal was a graduate
of the University of Michigan

in 1979 and he went on to earn a
master's degree in public policy

from Princeton University.

His deep interest
in policy analysis

in international affairs
led him to work in the field

of international finance and he
was in the World Trade Towers

on September 11th of 2001,
and Josh died in that attack.

His mother, Marilyn Rosenthal,

was a long-time faculty
member here at the University

of Michigan and she
was determined

to create a positive meaning
from what had happened on 9/11

and her intent was to help
fulfill her son's early optimism

about the world and the role
that mutual understanding,

dialogue and analysis play in
improving communities both here

in the United States
and around the world.

Marilyn and a number
of others worked

to establish the Josh
Rosenthal Education Fund

which has enabled
the Ford school

to bring leading public figures
to Ann Arbor each September

to share their insights
to foster dialogues

and generate a greater
understanding of many ways

in which the world has changed
since 9/11, and the many ways

that we can continue to help to
foster and encourage that change

and are there members of the
Rosenthal family who are able

to join us here today?

Welcome, it's wonderful
to see you.

We're delighted that
you are able to be here.

I know that Josh's sister
Helen Rosenthal is watching

on our live feed and I know
that there are many others

around the country who
are doing so as well

so we welcome her in that venue.

I do want to make a
very special thank you

to the Rosenthal family
for their support.

We are very grateful
to them for being able

to continue the Josh Rosenthal
lecture and this dialogue.

Marilyn Rosenthal died
in 2007 but I know

that she would have been
extremely pleased especially

on the 10th anniversary
of the events on 9/11

to welcome Sheikh
Sultan here this year

as our Rosenthal lecturer.

Sheikh Sultan is a
successful businessman

and he is the founder and
chairman of Barjeel Securities,

a financial products company
and the Managing Director

of Al Saud Company Limited which
specializes in equity markets,

real estate, and construction.

He's a teacher as well,
a nonresident fellow

at the Dubai School of
Government and a lecturer

at the Dubai Men's College
on Middle Eastern history

and entrepreneurship, but
Sultan is perhaps best know

internationally for his
commentary, analysis

and dissemination
of social, political

and economic news
from the Middle East.

He's a columnist at the
national newspaper in Abu Dhabi

and he co-hosts a weekly
show on Dubai Eye radio.

His columns appear regularly
in the national and money works

and he's been published
internationally

in the Financial Times,
the Daily Star in Lebanon,

the Hoppington Post and others.

Over 78,000 follow his
commentary on Twitter,

and that number exploded
this past winter

when during the uprisings
in Tunisia and Egypt,

his nearly instantaneous
translations

of Arab language
news were seized

on by English speaking
journalists and observers hungry

to follow and understand
the changes

that were sweeping the region.

We could not be more pleased
this afternoon and honored

to welcome Sheikh Sultan
Al Qassemi to Ann Arbor

and to the Ford School
and I am delighted now

to welcome him to the podium.

>> Okay.

[ Applause ]

>> Thank you for that
wonderful introduction.

I'm not tweeting, I'm
just checking the time

so I don't take any
of your time.

First of all, I wanna
say that I'm very honored

to be here amongst you,
especially, you know,

considering the circumstances
and I am mindful

that we are all able to be
here as a result of a grant,

by the very generous family of
Joshua Rosenthal who passed away

as we heard 10 years
ago this month.

In fact, it's very, it's
very fitting I think

that we are speaking on
this occasion because a lot

of us have been affected by
those horrible tragic events.

We also heard that
a few months ago,

the person who planned these
horrific events was, you know,

killed and in fact I had
written a couple of articles

about how he had died several
times before he was killed.

He had died in the
streets of Cairo,

he had died in the
streets of Benghazi,

he had died in the streets of
Sana'a, he had died in Bahrain,

he had died in Tunisia, he had
died all over the Arab world

where no on or a single one
of the millions upon millions

of Arab and Middle Eastern
protesters even had a single

reason to say about
that horrific terrorist

so the world has come full
circle I think and we're ready

to talk about the future.

Now, I'm gonna talk to you about
four issues but before I do,

let's talk about the background
of the term Arab Spring.

What is the Arab Spring?

A lot of people dispute
this word.

It's not popular at all
amongst some circles.

It's looked up on as
being orientalist word,

a word that came from, you know,

from writers outside the Middle
East region and the origin

of the word actually
is by a French writer

who didn't have a
very good history,

he was a Nazi collaborator
so probably try

to avoid using anything he
came up with but the word,

he traveled throughout the Arab
world while the Ottoman empire

was collapsing and other
countries were being formed

and he came up with this phrase
called the Printemps Arabe

or the Arab Spring.

Until today, French
journalists refer to the events

of the Middle East
as Le Printemps Arabe

as in the Arab Springs,
so what's the deal

with the Arab Revolutions,
what's going on,

what's the background and
where are we going from here.

There are things that we'll talk
about in the next hour or so.

There were several
studies talking

about why the Arab
Spring happened?

There was a series of studies
authored by a wonderful lady

who called the Arab Human
Development reports in which

that talked about a human rights
deficit, a freedom deficit,

economic growth that failed,

women's rights deficit,
democracy deficit.

So, all these factors
were there.

In fact, the Arab Spring should
have happened a decade ago,

2 decades ago, maybe
decades before 2011.

There was a study that
found that the economies

of the Arab world
actually shrank

over the past few decades,
even the gulf states,

there was a negative
growth of 2.8 percent,

there's a word I never heard of
before called the development

so in fact we were
regressing in the last 60 years

in the Arab world and there
were all sorts of reasons,

that dictators would use,
all sorts of excuses.

But ultimately, it was the
denial of human rights,

it was the denial of the
citizens' rights that led

to the Arab awakening.

Two issues though that
are talked about a lot

which is the role of social
media and this is something

that I think I'll
spend some minutes on.

There was two events
that took place

in 2010 before the Arab Spring
that really set the wheel

in motion for the
events of 2011.

One is more famous than the
other, there was the case

of a young Tunisian vegetable
seller who was in a small town

that I had never heard
of called Sidi Bouzid

and he was unemployed, and
he had his vegetable cart

that he would wheel into
the square and he was trying

to sell vegetables so
a police officer comes

and you know tells him off,
tells him you can't sell here,

go back, this is
no place for you.

He goes back and he sets
himself alight and even

in the repressive
regime of Ben Ali,

in which the internet had
a police officer known

as Ammar 404 who would stop
you from surfing any websites.

>> Even in that repressive
environment,

news of this young man
spread like wild fire

across the blogosphere and
the internet, to the extent

that the tightly controlled
newspapers actually reported

on the incident, the
president, former dictator went

to visit him, and on June 4th,

that young man passed
away Mohammed Bouazizi,

and within 6 days the
dictator was ousted.

Another event that also
played a big role is,

and this is where social
media comes in, is the killing

of a young Egyptian
called Khaled Saeed.

Khaled Saeed was 24 year old.

They were both 24, 25
years old, young kids,

so Khaled Saeed was killed
by 2 police officers.

He was an IT engineer and he saw
them exchanging drugs in Egypt

in the neighborhood called
Sidi Gaber in Alexander

so he filmed them and they
saw him, they followed him

and they dragged him out
of the internet café,

we call it internet cafe
back there, and they beat him

to a pulp to the-- and then,
you know, they didn't care

about him, they just wanted
to take the video footage,

and photos of him went
viral on the internet.

These police officers
were sentenced to 4 days

and that was it, for
beating a young man up.

So what happened was young
Egyptians started a Facebook

page called We Are
All Khaled Saeed

and it got thousands
upon thousands of members

on that Facebook page
and in order for them

to identify each other,
reach out to each other,

social media was the only
medium, and so what they decided

to do was they decided to dress
in black, and go and stand

on the streets of Alexandria,
on the Cornish carrying--

some of them carrying
their bibles,

some of them carrying
their Korans,

some of them just you know
dressed in black standing next

to each other but leaving a
few yards difference, maybe 6,

7 yards between them and why did
they do that because Egypt was

and continues to be under
state of emergency which means

that no more than 4 or 5
people can congregate together

in a room without an official
permit, so they were able

to bypass this law that says
that you can't be together

by standing next to
each other like this

and then the next person
a few yards away like that

and in complete silence
for several hours a day

over a period of few days.

And everybody knew
why they were there.

Everybody knew that these young
men and women were unhappy

about the death of
this young gentleman.

The administrator of
that Facebook page,

you might have heard of
him, his name is Wael Ghonim

and he was the young Google
executive who was detained

for 11 days during
the Egyptian uprising.

So what happened on social
media, these young men

and women decided and
this was by the way,

many of you don't know this,
this was decided before the fall

of the Egyptian-- of
the Tunisian dictator.

They identified the 25th
of January as the date

where they want to
go and protest

and that's why it's called
the January 25th revolution

but why January 25?

Because that is the day, that
day is police day in Egypt,

that day Egyptians
celebrate police day,

because the police were, you
know, gave them a lot of cause

to celebrate, so but the reason,

actually the reason why
they chose January 25,

was that was the day that most
police officers were off duty.

[ Laughter ]

>> And they were able to march

on the streets while the police
officers were on holiday,

and the beginning of the
revolution, in the beginning

of the uprising, people
demanded 3 things.

I'll say them I Arabic.

Aysh, hurriya,
ditthinijjhakkhantiya, bread,

freedom and social justice
but by the 28th of January,

there was a huge crack down and
several people, many people,

dozens in fact had died
in the first few days

and then they started chanting
we want the end of the regime.

Let's go back a few months,

what's the deal with
social media?

What is social media
in Arab world?

Is it really that important?

Did it really play
that decisive a role?

Now the Arab world consists
of about 300 million people,

about 75 percent are under 29
so it's a very young region

of the world, 20, 25 percent of
them unemployed, imagine that?

That's about what, 40, 50
million unemployed individuals.

Some countries don't consider
women who are unemployed

as unemployed, unfortunately,

but the truth is the numbers
were hovering between the 20s

and 30s, so you had this young
region using social media,

Facebook for instance,
penetration.

January 2010, you had 11.9
million users of Facebook

in the Arab world, December
2010, 12 months later,

you had 22 million users
of social media in the--

or Facebook in the Arab world.

Number of Twitter users,
several tens of thousands.

By the end of the revolution,
5 and a half to 6 million.

Now, keep in mind there are
300 million Arabs so that means

that it was a sort of
an elite instrument,

not everybody had
access to social media.

Less than 10 percent of Arabs
had access to social media,

but what social media allowed
them to do was to reach

out to each other, it allowed
them to identify each other,

find the common slogan,
find the date

in which they would
start to protest.

It allowed them to
unify the slogan.

It allowed them to bypass a--

to bypass, you know,
police check points.

Where I came in is
this, January 2010--

2011, I had a little free time
on my hands and there was the--

the Tunisians had started to
protest against their dictator,

and a 150,000 of them were on
the street and it was exciting.

The whole world was watching
what was happening this time

in North African countries.

That is really, that
was really the country

that I would have nominated
to be the very last, why?

Because you had the United
Nations had showered it

with praise, human development,
you know women empowerment,

minority rights, the Jewish
community had rights in Tunisia.

The-- all sorts of--
you know all sorts

of indicators perhaps
pointed to the fact

that Tunisia was
a stable country.

Mind you, it had a lot
of security as well

so there was no way that
this would happen in Tunisia,

uprising happened, Ben Ali,
Mohammed Bouazizi died--

dies, January 11th, Ben
Ali flies to Saudi Arabia.

On the next day, I
thought it was over.

I was like this is great.

Wow, one dictator is gone.

I mean, this is wonderful
that maybe next year

or the year after, or
you know a decade later,

another one will go but within
48 hours Muammar Gaddafi comes

out on TV and starts,
he had an average,

one of his shorter speech
was about 3 hours long,

so he starts ranting and
he had-- you know he had,

he really looked upset, and
Gaddafi was a huge supporter

of Ben Ali that Ben Ali's
palace was built by Gaddafi,

his summer home, and he
only had tight relations

so Gaddafi starts
saying things like,

remember Wikileaks had just
released these documents about--

incriminating Ben Ali saying
that he is very unpopular,

his family controls the economy,
his wife controls you know--

is despised in the community.

So Ben Ali comes out, starts
saying things like, lecturing,

starts things like don't
believe what you read in the,

what you read in clinics, and
I thought what is clinics?

And he didn't know
to call Wikileaks,

so he called it clinics
[laughter]

and then he started saying
and don't believe what's

on bookface [laughter].

I was like, what's bookface?

This is all new words.

You know, I never heard of
this stuff, so I was tweeting

and tweeting and
tweeting, I was writing,

translating what Gaddafi was
saying and he was insane.

He was saying things like
you should be so lucky

to have Ben Ali be your
president, you should apologize

to him, ask for him to come
back and maybe he'll return

and you should be so lucky if he
does and it was just hilarious,

I was laughing and
crying at the same time,

tweeting about what this
insane individual was saying

and this is where I think where
the tipping point for me was.

I noticed that I
had what, 5000--

6000 followers, I noticed that
by the end of the next day,

I had doubled or
tripled that number.

>> People were saying follow
this guy who's translating what

Gaddafi is saying now, it's
hilarious and [laughter] yeah,

and so there was about
2 and a half hour speech

in which I was tweeting
every 40 seconds,

so you can imagine
my thumbs were very,

very sore by the
end of that evening.

So then, you know, Ben Ali
departs January 25 so a good,

what, a good 10 days,
two weeks, between them,

we had time to crack our
knuckles and you know

and the Egyptian
revolution started.

We didn't know it
was a revolution.

We thought it was just a protest
on police day, and Mubarak shuts

down the internet, Mubarak
shuts down TV, Mubarak shuts

down mobiles, Mubarak shuts
down satellite channels,

Al Jazeera was chased
out of Nile Sat,

you can't call internationally,

you were completely
disconnected.

Now you do have countries that
are not wired like North Korea

but to have a country
that had a decent amount,

10 million maybe social media
users in Egypt, all of a sudden,

none of them have
access to information.

However, there was an ISP left,
internet service provider,

basically the company that
provides internet services.

One was called NOOR net, and
that company or NOOR DSL,

now that company was
catering to the banks

and to the brokerage
firms, and the Central Bank

so they were separate than--
separate from the other firms

so that company allowed a
small number of Egyptians

to access the internet so what
happened was there were many

several thousands of Egyptians
who would tweet from Egypt

or who would call or
who would-- who would--

who were able to stay in touch
with the rest of the world,

only several thousands in
a country of 80 million,

and these were the
lifeline of Egypt,

these were really the brave
men and women who kept Egypt

in touch with the rest
of the world, and so,

so I was tweeting things
like you know Habib al-Adly.

Habib al-Adly, he's the
interior minister of Egypt

who was sentenced to 12 years
on corruption a few months back.

He's going, he's undergoing
another trial now with Mubarak.

So I was tweeting,
I remember one day,

you know I was constant,
constant, 24 hours a day,

3 weeks I didn't go to work,

I didn't do anything
except watch Egypt

and I remember tweeting

about Habib al-Adly saying
we're withdrawing all the police

forces from the streets, why,

because the police
were implicated

in shooting live
bullets at protesters.

I remember the most popular
tweet I ever sent out was this,

and I memorized it because it
went out several thousand times

in the original form
it was re-tweeted,

and the tweet was Al
Jazeera, Egyptian doctors,

we have been ordered not to
report deaths by live bullets.

So these tweets really went
out all over and they're--

so that meant that the police
were using live bullets

against Egyptian protesters
who didn't have any weapons.

And then, so Habib
al-Adly, the next,

you know 3 days later withdraws
all the police from the street.

Can you imagine being in
Michigan, Boston, New York,

Washington, L.A., and there's
not a single police officer

in the street?

How you would feel?

It's a frightening
thought, you know.

Anybody can break into your
house and you can't pick

up the phone and call 911
and say, someone's breaking

into my house, so you had
this community police started

to be formed in Egypt.

So I remember tweeting,

police officers withdraw
from the streets.

Now they've gone out of this
neighborhood, now they've gone

out of that neighborhood,
reports of thugs being--

you know going into that
area and I had my TV

and I had my laptop and I had
my iPhone and I had my headset,

and I was completely wired
you know talking on the phone,

watching TV, tweeting these
things the radio, two recorders,

rewinding, forwarding,
what was happening

in Egypt in those days.

I got a phone call from this
guy I went to school with.

Sultan, yes, who is this, who
is this, and I'm tweeting,

I'm like what's going on, who
is it and I saw this number

from Egypt, who is this?

It's me, so I can't
say his name.

It's me, I went to
school with you.

We'll call him Salem.

It's me Salem, I went
to school with you.

I'm like Salem, what the hell,
who are you, what's going on?

And he goes Sultan, I'm like oh
my God, my friend is calling me

from Egypt and it looks
like it's interesting,

you know he was able to get
a line outside the country,

this is so exciting,
I'm gonna ask them

about what's happening
on the ground.

And he starts saying
things like--

then he starts telling me,
Sultan, I have to ask you

for some thing very important,

my friend is telling me
something's very important,

he's gonna tell me
something's very important.

Sultan, you have
to stop tweeting,

he told me to stop
tweeting and then people--

like dozens of comments, no,
no, don't stop, don't stop,

you can't stop, you can't stop.

And then I'm like oh my God,
he's telling me to stop tweeting

because I'm threading havoc and
chaos in Cairo and in Egypt,

and people are scared because
I'm saying that there's no one

in the street, there's
no police in the street.

And I'm like oh my God, and so
I say, so I say, he's asking me

to stop tweeting, and then he
tells me the reasons why and I'm

like I'm gonna tell him I can't.

He goes, I saw your tweet, I saw
that you said you're gonna stop.

You have to stop.

[ Laughter ]

>> So I'm like I'm
gonna apologize to him.

You can't, you have to stop.

So I completely, I mean
I ignored him and I'm

like I'm sorry, I can't, I
understand because I'm standing

in the mall and I'm holding
a fire hose and I'm gonna,

I'm gonna, you know I'm going
to open, what, fire hose?

Open water?

At any protest, at anyone
who comes into the mall

because I have to protect the
mall and I'm, he was the head

of this mall or something.

So I ignored him, fortunately

and I'll tell you why I ignored
him, and this is where the role

of social media comes in.

A lot of people, a lot of
Egyptians were depending

on information from social
media for their own safety,

I had a lot of comments, people
saying thank you for tweeting

that there were thugs in
the street in that corner

under that bridge
in that neighborhood

because my sister was
gonna go out shopping,

my brother was gonna go out to
the super market, but I know

and I'm driving in the streets
and I'm walking in the street,

I have no access to TV,
the radio doesn't work,

the only thing I have is the--
is my Blackberry and I can tell

that there are thugs in that
neighborhood and that's why I'm,

I didn't let my mom or dad or
bothers or sisters go there.

So social media in a way did
play a role even though it

wasn't completely decisive.

Now, what happened after
Egypt, well basically,

the Middle East fell apart,
you had several revolutions,

you had Bahrain, you had Syria,
you had Libya, you had Yemen

of course and governments
adapted to social media, how so?

In the beginning, social
media was used by young folks,

young boys and girls who wanted
to communicate with each other.

In the beginning they were
flirting with each other

in social media and then it
became a tool of survival.

But by the third Arab uprising,
the social media was used

as a tool against
the protesters.

You had government-affiliated
accounts that we refer

to as trolls, people
that you can't identify,

we have others known
as-- we call them eggs.

Why do we call them eggs?

Because the default
Twitter handle--

photo is an egg so people who
just created accounts you know

and just to attack you,
just to threaten you,

governments in the Middle
East jailed bloggers,

jailed Twitter users, they
used their Twitter accounts

as a proof against them,
against, for instance,

against them planning a protest,

against them using
you know language

that the government didn't like.

You have several social media
activists who are in jail today

in the Arab world
in prison terms.

Believe it or now, prison
terms for re-tweeting,

just taking what
someone said and saying

that person said this can vary
between 3 and 10 years in jail

in the Arab world so it was
completely, completely insane.

On the other hand,
you have stories

where social media was a, you
know was used in a good way.

Four years ago, there was
a young Saudi gentleman,

Fouad al-Farhan and he had
written a blog called 10 Saudis

I Never Want to Meet and
it was just that innocent.

I just don't wanna
meet them, he didn't--

you know he didn't say
I want them to be hurt,

he didn't say I want them, you
know something bad to happen

to them, he just said I don't
wanna meet them, and he,

one of them was a prince, one
was a clergy, one was mayor,

and one was a judge and within
a short while, he was thrown

in solitary confinement between
November 2007 to March 2008.

For 4 to 5 months, he was
in solitary confinement.

This was over a blog post.

Fast forward 4 years, in the
midst of the Arab uprisings,

that same gentleman as a result
was called in by a prince,

of the prince of the western
region of Saudi Arabia.

You know what, the
same government

who jailed him called
him in, how do you do.

Come in, tell us
about your followers.

>> Please tell them that
we're doing-- we're reforming.

Tell them that we're
doing so and so.

This is how we're trying to
build the infrastructure.

Say hello to you Twitter users.

So this guy, I mean imagine
that, from being thrown in jail

to the power of people
on social media

and the Arab world shows you.

There was another case where
the Saudi women drivers,

for example.

On June 17th between 60 and 90
Saudi women drove in the street

and they used social
media, number 1,

to create a Facebook
page, identify each other,

reach out to each other,
choose a date, specific date

that they will all do
this so that rather

than becoming a singular,
individual effort,

it was a collective effort.

And they used the same slogan.

And the most beautiful of
all in this case was the fact

that young men and women
would tell them, "Watch out.

There's a policeman
on this road.

Avoid it. Turn."

You know, so the
girls would be driving

and somebody would be reading

for them saying there's
a policeman

on this junction
stopping women drivers.

As a result, 2 out of
the 60 were stopped.

Only 2 out of the 60 girls.

So, you can imagine that
without social media perhaps,

the number might have
been quite higher.

Another issue that is quite
negative about social media

in the Arab world, it was used

to spread you know
negative propaganda.

In the case of Libya,
for instance,

there was blatant racism in some
of the social media updates.

I'll give you a background
in this.

Libya is a country of 5 to
6 million people of which 1

and a half to 2 million are
Sub-Saharan African migrants

who are working in Libya.

Now, you know-- and when--

in Gaddafi's era in 2000 when
he was trying to build bridges

with Europe he went
and he cracked

down on the African migrants
even though the vast majority

of them were there legally
but they cracked down on them.

And as a result, 150 Africans
died in Libya of which,

you know, ironically, 10
percent, 15 were Libyan citizens

because in Southern Libya,
you have dark skinned Libyans.

And fast forward 10, 11
years, the social media

from the very first date
of the Libyan uprising,

you had people tweeting saying
you know African mercenaries.

And imagine there were
a million of them.

Can they all be African
mercenaries?

So, you even had an official
in Gaddafi's government

who ironically moved
to the other side

and continued using the same
you know vile statements

against these migrants.

So, social media in this
case as well had a dual use.

Now I'll talk a little
bit about the reaction

of the Gulf States
where I come from.

You've had-- so far, you've had
3 Arab populations were able

to overthrow their
leader, Egypt, Tunisia

and Libya, I think so.

I mean, he's hiding.

More or less, he's overthrown.

So, but what about
the Gulf States?

Now, the Gulf States are
the wealthier states.

You had uprisings
in the Gulf States.

You had a country to the east
of the Arab world called Oman.

Oman, hundreds of
people protested.

The Sultan decided to
kick out the cabinet,

you know give powers to
the consultive council

and that was the end of
the uprising, more or less.

On the other side,
you had Bahrain.

Bahrain, you have tens
of thousands of people

who went out on the street.

Bahrain is interesting, why,

because it's probably the most
wired country in the Arab world.

They have 200 percent mobile
phone penetration rate.

It's insane.

Everyone has 2 phones, 3 phones.

You know, because, I mean,
what if someone calls you

and you have another
line you need to answer.

So, in Bahrain, imagine
this, in 2010 one blog used

to have 100,000 hits a day in
a country of half a million.

That was an insane number,

a very young population,
very educated.

Once again, a country that a lot

of people didn't expect
uprisings to occur

because the king
had given rights.

The-- you know, there was the
minorities, the Christians,

the Jews, the Hindus were given
rights and they were appointed

as ambassadors, members
of parliament, so,

a very progressive country
but something happened

and there was an uprising.

Within a month, 2 other
Gulf States sent in troops,

the uprising was put down
although the dialogue continues.

But what about the other Gulf
States, the other 4 Gulf States;

Saudi, U.A.E. where I come
from, Qatar and Kuwait?

They are the wealthier states.

Their reaction to the Arab
Spring and this is a bit--

the economics of
the Arab Spring,

their reaction was
very much financial.

Saudi Arabia announced in
March 130 billion dollars aid

and infrastructure projects,
a massive amount of money.

It's actually bigger than the
aid package of the U.S. compared

to the size of the economy.

So, huge amount.

For instance, imagine
this, the largest number

of jobs created overnight,
130,000 jobs in which sector?

It wasn't in art
and entertainment.

It was in security, 130,000
security jobs created

in the Gulf.

Why? You have tens of thousands
of young unemployed, unhappy,

dissatisfied young men and
women but men, within a stroke

of a pen you've got
them into your security.

You would turn them
to your side.

You give them jobs, now
they're on your side.

Anybody thinking of protesting,
you have 130,000 people

who probably will come in handy.

With regards to Egypt
for instance,

now Egypt is an interesting
case.

Egypt was really the balancing
state of the Arab world

that had a peace
treaty with Israel.

It had a regime that the
world was in general happy

where it's continued to reform.

So there was-- internally,
people weren't happy.

But in general, the rest of the
world was happy with Mubarak.

Another thing about Egypt
is that for the Gulf States,

it was a counterbalance to
Iran where Iran is a threat

to the Middle East and
to the Gulf States.

Egypt was the only country
that had the sufficient,

especially after Iraq was
taken out of the equation.

It was the only country that
had the sufficient manpower

in the army of about a
million people in the army

that could balance Iran off.

So for the Gulf States and
for the region in general,

it was important to
have a stable Egypt.

And that's why after the fall
of Mubarak, the Gulf States went

to Egypt and offered so much.

Qatar, one of the smaller
Gulf States offered 10 billion

dollars in investments
to create a million

and a half jobs almost
in building ports.

The U.A.E. offered
3 billion dollars,

1 and a half billion
for an SME fund.

Saudi Arabia offered 4 billion
dollars and other countries

where uprisings were starting
like Morocco and Jordan,

Saudi gave 2 billion
dollars to Jordan

and invited them
into the GCC Club.

The GCC is the Gulf
monarchies club.

It's the club of the
kings of the Gulf.

So, they invited Jordan

and Morocco even though Morocco
last time I checked isn't

on the Persian Gulf,
Arabian Gulf.

It's a bit far.

But they kind of invited them

in because they wanted this
alliance of monarchies.

But is this sustainable?

Is it sustainable?

Can you buy your way?

Can you continue paying money?

It's highly unlikely that
you can continue paying money

when people's demands
are for more rights.

Just checking on time.

I think we're pretty much--
I'll leave you with one thought.

So, you know, there
are 22 Arab countries.

Some of them are monarchy.

Some of them are republics.

They're minorities,
they're not all Arabs.

Some of them are Berber.

Some of them are Jews.

Some of them are Bahaists,
they're minorities.

It's a mosaic really
of cultures.

But what happened
over the last 8,

9 months really was
Arab stepping up,

Arab saying we are citizens.

We are no longer subjects.

We are citizens that
we demand our rights.

Regardless of what happens
over the next few months,

the truth is, 100 million
Arabs are freer today

than they were just
8, 9 months ago.

This can come-- you
know, you can see this

as a glass half full,
glass half empty,

but it's a rocky road ahead in
which you will see a lot of ups

and downs, a lot of
things that you are unhappy

with what happened,
a lot of maybe--

some Islamic political
groups will come into play.

Frankly, I'd rather
have them in politics

than have them elsewhere.

But the truth is, not everything
will go the way we want it to go

but the trajectory
is very positive.

In the long term, I believe we
will only see a better Middle

East because of the
Arab awakening.

Thank you.

[ Applause ]

>> Thank you very much.

He has finally agreed to
take questions and we will go

until no later than 5:30.

>> So, just put your hand up.

Identify who you are
for the rest of us.

>> Hi, I'm--

>> Do we have mics or just--

[ Inaudible Remark ]

>> I would.

[ Inaudible Remarks ]

>> Okay, the question
was do you think the role

of social media will
become less effective

as civil society grows?

Definitely.

Yes, I think part of the reason
why social media is so prevalent

in the Arab world, why
people depend on it

so much is the avenues
of communications,

the official avenues are shut.

There is no way to form
civil society movements.

The government has
to appoint a head

of the movement,
of the association.

Your agenda is very much set
for-- is set by the government.

That's why social media
really isn't a huge tool here

in American because
you can just go apply

and start your civil
society movement, you know,

within a few hours, I
think in the States.

I think this is definitely
the case.

Perhaps with the freer
countries, you will see less

and less use of social media.

However, there are a lot of
countries that will not be free

in the next year or two.

This, the Arab awakening
is a generational issue.

It will take decades,
if not generations.

And so, I think you
will continue

to see a role for social media.

Yes sir?

>> Hi, my name is
Jacob Thompson.

I'm a doctoral student

at American University
in Washington.

D.C. [Inaudible] and my
question, the last time,

social media more of a media and
more broadly in the Arab world

and I'm particularly
interested in your take

over recent development
for the last couple of days

with Al Jazeera and [inaudible]
timing and stepping down

and his successor which
it seems is a member

of the royal family in Qatar.

I think most people recognize
that Al Jazeera both Arabic

and English language has
played out an important role

in what has unfolded,
I think, for the past 8

or 9 months as we discussed.

But because one of
the critics is

that it's becoming
increasingly an instrument

of Qatar reform policy and less
balanced and I'd be interested

in what you think as is this
at a point for Al Jazeera

or you know, his stepping down.

He hasn't really illustrated--
he hadn't said the reasons why.

You mentioned Wikileaks earlier
and everything is on cables

and come out saying that there
is you know, a relationship

between some U.S. diplomats
and what Al Jazeera do

in terms of their coverage.

So, I mean I think we've all
noted that there is a disparity

in Al Jazeera as well

as it perhaps covered
what events unfolding

in Egypt and Libya.

Bahrain was completely kind
of ignored to in a sense.

So, do you think that his
stepping down is a sign post or?

I'd be interested
in your intake.

>> So, just to put into
context Al Jazeera was a channel

that was started in 1996.

It has 50 million viewers
before the Arab awakening.

Now it claims between 100
to 250 million viewers,

they have an English service
as well that broadcasts in D.C.

and New York here in the U.S
cable and it's available online.

For the past 8 years
it was headed

by a gentleman called Wadah
Khanfar who I know personally,

this gentleman stopped
down abruptly yesterday

and a Qatari Sheikh was
appointed in his place

but the question was will
this affect the entirety

of the channel and how it was--

how it covered Arab
Spring, Arab awakenings.

The truth is we noticed
over the last--

first of all Al Jazeera
plays a huge role.

When it was kicked out of Egypt

and the satellite
signal was jammed,

Egyptians would volunteer
to film video and send it

to the channel, that was
one of the biggest examples

of social media and what
is termed as eye report

or amateur journalism
but Al Jazeera,

I mean increasingly looks
like it's an extension

of the foreign policy
of the state of Qatar.

State of Qatar is a
very dynamic country

in the in the Arab world.

At one point in time it
hosted both an Israeli office

and Hamas office you know next
to each other, it hosted people

from you know from different
factions around the Middle East,

so it's a very dynamic
country, however, the coverage

of Al Jazeera in the
last 6, 7 months kind

of metered what was happening
within the Qatari government.

Now, which one needs the other,
I'm not sure but for instance

with Libya, Qatar
was the first country

to recognize the transition
of the national council,

and Libya's coverage was
very much slanted towards

the revolutionaries.

I mean all, even-- regardless
of what our feelings were

on an individual basis,
you have to report very,

very fairly with regards
to the Egyptian uprising.

It also mirrored the
ruling family's policy

or the state's policy.

Yemen, same thing,
relations with Israel

when they were going well,
Jazeera got a lot of coverage.

When they were going
back state level wise,

the reporters weren't given
permits, et cetera, et cetera.

So I don't know if we are
coupling them together

or they are coupled together

but there is definitely a
correlation between the channels

and there's nothing
wrong with that,

because you've seen other
instances here with Voice

of America, Radio Free
Europe, in the States.

You also have the
BBC, which was fun--

which is till funded by
the British Foreign Office

so why can't Qatar
have the same kind

of relationship with
its media arm.

But definitely without
that channel,

things would have gotten much,
much more bloodier I think.

The revolutions will happen
sooner or later but I think

that having a TV, having the,
there was a famous quote,

that Wadah Khanfar said.

He was getting messages from
Egyptians where they had cameras

on Tahrir Square saying please
don't switch the cameras off

because if you do, a
massacre will occur

so this was the general
mood that you have a camera

so people can see what's
happening live and so you have

to behave yourself as
a dictator, not you

but whoever the dictator is.

Yes sir?

>> Steve Simon [phonetic],
a resident of the community.

You mentioned earlier
in your remarks

that the region has been subject

to negative economic
growth for decades.

Now while that's been due to
[inaudible] supporting things

with the advent of democracy,

I think democracy
requires a viable economy.

Do the people taking over power

in the region understand
what they need to do

to create viable economies and
certainly, on a related way,

any advice from you
to other countries

of the world including
the U.S. in terms

of our foreign policy what we
need to do to sustain growth

in the economy aside
from petrol dollars?

>> Okay, well, I'll
ask a question.

I'll come back to you in
a minute, next question.

Basically, the world has given--
has been giving these countries

that have witnessed
the Arab uprising,

they have been giving
them a lot of money

but do you have the
institutions that can, you know,

distribute this funding,
first of all?

What about corporate
governments?

Corporate governments
were very poor

in the Arab world before,
how about afterwards?

It's not clear.

Libya, there's a complete
breakdown in a system

that didn't even exist in
the first place, that just--

it looked like there
was a system there.

Egypt still has-- you know,
they still have their NGOs

and their civil society
movements, et cetera.

So it's not really
one single case,

Yemen also needs a lot of help.

There were calls for an
Arab bank for reconstruction

and development, much like
what was created in Europe,

the European Bank for
reconstruction and development.

200 billion dollars
have been pledged

for the Arab countries
including 38 billion

from the G8 countries, so money
will-- should be available,

whatever-- Whether
this money materializes

or not is a different story,

but I think what's
important is the mechanism

to distribute these funds.

Corporate governments,
they have to insist

that this money is going
to a specific cause rather

than to fill up the pockets
of corrupt individuals.

You have the second part of
your question, I can't remember.

Advice to the Americans?

I mean Americans are mature,

I don't think anyone should
be giving Americans advice

but it's just, it's you know,
it's just it's easier if we,

if the Middle East or the
rest of the world knows

where America stands
so it can react

and they can plan their future.

America has a lot of clout,
has a lot of, even has a lot

of goodwill, American people
have a lot of goodwill

in the Middle East,
a lot of respect,

a lot of people wanna move here.

You know, I think America just
needs to clarify its position

with regards to certain
governments in the Arab world,

with regards for example to
the Middle East peace process.

The clearer the position is,

the easier these countries
can deal with America.

There was call for
an Obama doctrine,

is there an Obama doctrine?

I'm not sure.

I'll come back to
you after this.

Yes please.

>> How has the Arab uprising
affected your [inaudible]

finance and security, how
has that affected the market?

>> Oh, some countries
are doing very well,

some countries are
booming actually.

There's, I mean, where
I come from, in Dubai,

the airport is booming,
it's so crowded, the ports.

>> [Inaudible] has not affected.

>> No, but some countries
have a negative growth like,

for example, in Bahrain,

Egypt has 8 to 10
million tourists a year,

how many tourists have you heard
of who went into Egypt recently?

I mean, the number is much,

much less than what the
country needs for instance.

If there is one tourist here who
went to Egypt in this room, we--

So, really it's a mixed bag.

However, because it's a
very young population,

I think that that the
growth will be very positive

for the region from 2012 and 13.

Maybe one more point.

Egypt was growing very
well during Mubarak's era,

it's shocking.

Egypt was growing
between 5 and 6 percent

where America had
1 percent growth,

so it's not just economic.

It's not just the economic cause
that led to the Arab uprisings

but it's very much about
dignity, social justice,

and human rights liberation.

So, I hope that answers
your question.

>> Yeah, I would like to
hear your evaluation of some

of the governments that
are being pawned now,

what do you know
about governments

that are being formed,
what's your opinion?

>> What we know is that there
hasn't been a revolution

in the sense of a
revolution in the Arab world.

Those who are in power in
Egypt continue to be in power

in Egypt, those who are in power

in Tunisia continue
to be in power.

What I mean is the
military, Mubarak

and Ben Ali were just the
faces of that military.

Yes, that dictator is down but
in reality the military was

in charge, perhaps in a year
or two, or decade or two,

the military will really
would lose its power.

Keep in mind Turkey for instance
after it overthrew the sultan

of Turkey the Ottoman empire
collapsed, it took decades

in Turkey to have complete free
and fair elections that led

to the current government
and the democracy.

There was a question
there, yeah.

Let's start with dean.

Yes, ma'am.

>> We have invited our live
feed audience to tweet questions

that they might have and I'd
like to read one of them to you.

What is the connection of We Are
All Khaled Saeed Facebook page

with the early protests if any?

>> Oh they're very instrumental.

We Are All Khaled Saeed was a
Facebook page that was started

by 2 Egyptians, one of them
is more famous than the other.

We did answer, we did
talk about this earlier

but it allowed people to
identify the message of protest,

the time of protest,
the location of protest.

You cannot-- otherwise, you
have-- you'll be having to,

you know, to write
notes and passing them

around the neighborhood.

But because of social
media, people said,

we're gonna wear black, we're
gonna stand a few yards apart,

we won't talk to each other
so that no one accuses

of congregating in public and
we will do this repeatedly

over a period of few days.

So that's what the-- and
continues to exist today,

We Are All Khaled Saeed.

So the role was quite decisive.

Just take the gentleman's
question.

[ Inaudible Remark ]

>> Okay. The question was
how come we missed it,

the Arab awakening?

And what if we slip in to a
regression rather than progress?

How come we missed it?

The truth is all the
signs were there.

People can choose
to ignore them.

In fact, the countries

that received the best marks
are the countries that had some

of the uprising, whether
it was Egypt or Tunisia.

I think arrogance, you know,
was a major factor at least

from the government's
level, that they believe

that they were immune, they
believe that they can continue

to repress their people, they
believe that they can continue

to hire, you know, their
cousins and their relatives

in the top positions and their
little mafias over state.

And so, you know,
there was a straw

that broke the camel's back.

Why was it straw
number 1 million

and not straw number 9,995,000?

I'm not sure.

But there was really
one single issue

and perhaps it was a collection
of factors that came together.

The other reason, do
we-- will we regress?

I think in some countries,
we will regress.

I think in some countries,
for example, in Tunisia,

which is really a model,
which was really a model state

for secularism and
for women's rights.

I believe that if the
Islamic party comes to power,

they might try to put--

you know, to put
restrictions on women.

In Tunisia, women
inherit equally as men.

Women's testimony at the
court is equal to men.

Women can divorce
their husbands.

So there's a lot of women
empowerment in Tunisia.

This, we might see a
regression in this but I believe

that it will just be a
temporary regression.

Now that the Islamic
parties have to play nice,

now that they have
to play part--

they have to be a part
of the political process.

They will-- you will see a
lot of coalition building

and there'll be a lot of
compromise and in the end,

people will not, people did
not revolt against one dictator

to have another dictator
stay there.

I think we are all
conscious of this fact.

Did you have a question?

>> I just wanna comment
about the Khaled Saeed,

[inaudible] Khaled Saeed.

It was also kind of a tool
for expat Egyptians to kind

of follow what happened
in Egypt, especially those

who were not on Twitter
but also I was wondering

if you could talk about
Palestine and what's next

for Palestine now that we--
you know, Arabs are rising up

and actually doing something and
they're going to place their bid

at the UN and stuff like that.

>> Okay, the question
was, what about Palestine?

There's this
notorious/infamous/gutsy move

by the Palestinian or not.

I shouldn't say Palestinian
government,

by Mahmoud Abbas
government to put in a bid

to create 194th state
in the United Nations.

I think with the regards to
Palestine, it is, you know,

it's going on for far too long.

It's been 63 years I think now.

Since some people were--
some people became refugees.

But I believe that Arabs are
equally to blame for this.

I believe that, you know, that
Palestinians are treated badly

in the Arab countries.

And I believe that as an Arab,

I wanna take ownership
of this issue.

I-- there are hundreds of
thousands of Palestinians living

in ghettos in the Arab
states where there was Egypt

or Syria or Lebanon or Jordan.

There are-- you know,
we should demand

that they get treated better.

Why should another
generation grow up in injustice

and living really
in the conditions

that you wouldn't want
animals to live in?

You know, crammed up in a city

that was built for
5 or 10 thousand.

You have hundred-- 200,000
people living there.

So first of all, Arabs must
take ownership of this issue.

We must admit that we
have failed Palestinians.

Number one.

Number two, you know,

Israel also must be held
accountable for this issue.

Now, I don't know
how it's gonna happen

but these two sides
must sit together.

Ultimately, we'd-- I don't think
anybody wants this to continue.

We've seen demands by
people in the street.

You know, we've seen
pressure coming

from different governments.

The truth is, it's a card

that various governments are
playing against each other.

I don't know the details.

I don't tweet about
Palestine-Israeli conflict

because it's a minefield that
I cannot put my mind around.

But all I know is-- you know,
I work with the Jewish people

in university, I work with
Arabs, I work with Christians,

I work for the Muslims,
they can work well anywhere

in the world except
in that region.

And so, there must be
something with the water,

there must be something there.

I don't know what it is but
someone should check it.

So hopefully, things-- I mean,

I remember writing an
article saying that the--

what Osama bin Laden was
calling for was, you know,

was a specific sect, a
specific you know people

who follow a specific
strand of Islam,

we're better than anybody else.

And the truth is no one is
better than anybody else.

No Muslim, no Christian,
no Jew, no Hindu,

no atheist is better
than anybody else.

And once we admit to this
fact, once we can see

through people rather than
looking at their religion,

labeling them with their
religion, I think we're gonna--

we're going to bypass
this issue.

But I believe this conflict
should not last any longer.

A lot of people disagree

with what the Abbas
government is doing,

but there needs to be a jolt.

Someone needs to come
and jolt the process

and maybe this is the-- maybe
this is a jolt, I don't know.

Hopefully, it willcreate
positive repercussions.

I'm sorry, sir.

Go ahead.

>> My name is John
Wilhelm [phonetic]

and I have a two-part question.

What impact did the previous
demonstrations in Iran have

and what impact is the,
particularly the success

of the Arab Spring likely to
have on Iran in the future?

>> The question, what impact
did the Iranian uprising

of 2009 have on the Arab Spring

and how would it
affect the future.

First of all, the
Iranians apparently tried

to elect someone
other than Ahmadinejad

but then Ahmadinejad was chosen
for them to be their president.

So, that was-- they
didn't like that much.

So, hundreds and
thousands of them went

out on the streets demanding,
you know, their rights.

But they were brutally
suppressed.

We know several things.

We know that the
Iranian government shared

with the Syrian government
methods

on identifying people
on social media.

Remember how social
media was used as a tool

of the counterrevolution?

Much of it is thanks to
our friends in Tehran.

The- the second thing, the
second aspect is, you know,

Iran today is worried about
losing its ally in Syria

and it's trying its very
best to keep him there.

And in fact, whenever you
have the supreme leader

or the president talk
about Arab uprisings,

he would say things
like, in Lebanon,

in Yemen, in Egypt, in Tunisia.

He would name every
country on the face

of the Earth except Syria.

Why? Because that's
his best buddy.

In fact, Iran is
the only friend left

to Bashar al-Assad in Syria.

I don't how this will affect,

all I know is the
supreme leader's old.

They have elections
in 2 years' time

and Ahmadinejad cannot
run for this election.

The Gulf States are
very concerned

about the Iranian
Nuclear Program.

Iran claims that it is peaceful.

My worry is, okay, I
believe you, it's peaceful

but it doesn't have
international,

you know, observers checking.

And what if Chernobyl happens

and we just live a few
hundred kilometers from them.

That is if you believe
it is peaceful.

So in the best case scenario,
you're extremely worried.

Let alone the worst
case scenario.

Yes ma'am.

>> Anne Kutcher [phonetic],
Political Science

in African Studies here and
most of my work is on Africa

so I'm very interested
in the way

to which the Egyptian
protest took place

because there are a lot
of similarities rippling

down the continent, even
in countries that are--

we would like to consider them
already limited democracies

at least, so a lot of countries
are watching what happens

in the Middle East
but farther south.

And one thing I noticed
from the coverage is

that the middle class in Egypt
seems to be, I mean the military

in Egypt seems to be
quite middle class.

They're in some middle
class neighborhoods,

some of the gated
communities seem

to be dominated by the military.

Now what I was wondering is does
that predispose them to some

of the arguments made
by the protesters?

Does that make the military
therefore more sympathetic

to some of the arguments of the
protesters or alternatively,

does it make them very
concerned that since some

of those protesters are
young and unemployed

that social movement
could go on a direction

that is decidedly anti-property
and anti-middle class?

>> I think that the
military should be concerned,

very concerned.

The fact is they control 30
percent of the Egyptian economy.

The military, what my worry
is that they are always

in the background,
however, today the head

of the Egyptian military
is receiving world leaders,

he is getting cables
sent to him,

he is being treated
like the president.

Now, that he has had a
taste of the good life,

is he going to give
up this power?

Chances are he's gonna fight
for it even though he is older.

We don't know the succession
even within the military.

It's highly secretive.

People did not hear from the
military during the Mubarak era.

Yes, a lot of them live
in gated communities,

Egypt has huge unemployment
issues,

a million people enter
the job market every year,

there aren't enough
jobs for them,

the military isn't
capable of creating jobs.

How do you create jobs?

Egyptians are asking

for nationalization,
is that a good idea?

Perhaps in some sectors, you
need the private sector also,

entrepreneurship, a
lot of these people,

you know the UN Human
Development reports says

that by 2020, a hundred
million jobs should be created

in the Arab world to keep the
miserable unemployment levels

that we have today.

Just to keep them as we are
25 percent unemployment,

you have to have a hundred
million jobs by 2020.

The military in Egypt won't
be able to create jobs.

They have to let civil society
create jobs the best way they

see fit.

Are there any other questions?

Okay.

[ Inaudible Remark ]

>> I'm sorry, I didn't see.

Yes, would you?

>> Why don't we make
this the last question?

>> Last question.

Okay.

[ Inaudible Remark ]

>> Okay, the question was
do you expect any uprising

in the Welfare Gulf States where
we didn't hear much, Qatar,

Kuwait, U.A.E and
the Saudi Arabia?

The answer is, every country

in the gulf is experiencing
the Arab awakening,

and the Arab world is
experiencing the Arab awakening

in a different way.

In some areas, you want a
complete overhaul of the system.

In some states-- like
Libya, for instance.

In other states where you
have the military state

but then you have some society
trying to advance agenda.

In other states like
Morocco and Jordan and Oman,

the monarchs try to introduce
reforms very quickly.

In Bahrain you have
the government suppress

the uprising.

In Saudi Arabia, you had one
man show up for a day of rage,

and fortunately he's detained.

The story is quite, quite sad.

Every time I think about
it, it makes me very sad.

So, for instance, in the U.A.E.

and Qatar the local populations
only make up 10 percent

of the entire population.

I mean in general living
conditions are quite satisfied.

Yes, you cannot dismiss
and say well, you know,

just because everyone's
happy doesn't mean

that that you know there isn't
some kind of political movement,

the U.A.E. has elections

for a non-legislative parliament
coming up in the next couple

of days, will this
satisfy people?

Some individuals wrote
petitions in the Saudi Arabia,

in the U.A.E, and
Qatar, in Kuwait.

People have been moving.

Like I told you, chances are
some regimes will take longer

to adapt.

My personal opinion is, and
I am on the record here,

my personal opinion is
the only way forward

for all the monarchies in
the Arab world if they want

to stay monarchies, would be to
create constitutional monarchies

where there's much more
people empowerment rather

than the absolute rule
model that we have today.

>> Before we thank our
speaker, I did want to make sure

that you know that you
are all invited to join us

at a refreshment just
outside of the great hall,

and we can continue the
conversation more informally.

But I would like to give
a very special thank you

for those insightful,
informative,

wide-ranging candid remarks.

We are very honored to
have you here with us today

for the Josh Rosenthal
Lecture, thank you.

>> Thank you.

[ Applause ]